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World Cup Wobbles after Covid-19 scare as Aronian and others withdraw; Concerns for Caruana

Get a grip! Go express your right to lick a McDonalds table.

I enjoyed OTB chess this week without a mask here in Canada as I have had 2 vaccine shots and am now an alien-human hybrid and part of the NWO. I lost the game anyway. Bullet has ruined me...
@the_providence #59
You're gifted with providence indeed, I will answer you. But I won't ignore your points, I'll address them. What makes you think I'm unwilling to have an honest discussion that aims for finding truth? My goal is to learn more. That's why I want to talk to people who don't share my opinion or preconceived ideas. To see what I can learn from them. Should I be wrong about something, I would like to know. My beliefs are preliminary and I aim to be ready to change them should new evidence become available. With that out of the way, let's go:

You write: "I explain it [the high excess mortality, e.g. in the US] by very negative and documented bad effects on health from prolonged and old mask wearing. [...]"

I'd like to see a source for this claim please. Saying something is documented and actually providing documentation are two very different things. What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
I'll have something to say about masks a bit later in this post.

You go on: "Isolation, lonliness, depression, increased alcoholism, job loss, financial troubles that result in depression, malnutrition, homelessness, effects on mental health from daily scare stories and the dystopia that has been created, also some people might have died from corona virus, I never doubt that, did you know that people die from common cold as well? Yes it is deadly to some, we never did lockdowns over that, or the flu which also often killed many people."

There's A LOT to unpack there. First-off, yes I totally agree, isolation, job loss, financial troubles and mental health effects are very unpleasant side effects of this pandemic, which is why getting it under control is so very urgent.
But can those unwanted side effects explain the excess mortality and its exponential increase in early 2020? Hardly.

Neither can frequent mask use. Attempts to mitigate the impact of respiratory diseases have included daily mask use (for common people on the streets) in Asia for several years (decades even) now. Only in the west was it unheard of. Why would the 'dangerous' masks wait until 2020 came around to kill people or ruin their health? Wouldn't Asia have suffered much more than the west from the 'dangerous' masks in the previous decades (it hasn't)? Why would – as you point out – Japan have negative excess mortality in 2020 when they were wearing masks just like us in the west? Wouldn't the masks have killed them as well? Why would there be an exponential increase in excess deaths in early 2020 when at that time masks were not commonly available in the west (remember, there were even calls not to hoard masks because unprepared governments feared private demand would take away the masks from hospitals that so desperately needed them)?

Also, what about medical professionals? They have used masks for protection from respiratory diseases (or to protect their immunocompromised patients) for decades as well. And for extended time frames, sometimes for their whole shift (≈8-10 hours a day). And you're telling me people having to put on a mask for half and hour a day (while going grocery shopping or the like) will have "[...] negative and documented bad effects on health [...]"? Without providing a shred of evidence?

You concede that "[...] some people might have died from corona virus, I never doubt that" only to immediately jump to influenza, pointing out that it too kills people. While this is of course absolutely true, it also fundamentally misses the point.

The flu has a much lower infection fatality rate (IFR) than SARS-Cov-2, because it's a novel zoonosis that nobody's immune system has ever encountered before. That means, if you infect 100,000 people with SARS-Cov-2 and 100,000 other people with an influenza virus, way more people (about 650) from the SARS-Cov-2 group will die (while way fewer [less than 100] people from the Flu group will die).
That's because SARS-Cov-2 has an IFR of 0.65% and the common flu has an IFR of <0.1% (that's the upper bound, exact numbers would be senseless since the IFR of seasonal influenza varies from year to year since it's caused by different strains each year).
There are many other significant differences between SARS-Cov-2 and influenza, like the fact that the former is much more contagious than the latter. SARS-Cov-2 has a basic reproductive number (R-naught) of 2.5 (or even ≈6 if you look at the Delta variant) while influenza has an R-naught of only 1.3 (source: medium.com/microbial-instincts/clarifying-the-true-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-same-as-the-flu-8148e38b9ab5)

In summary, no SARS-Cov-2 is not like the flu, it's much worse, which is also exemplified by the uncommonly high excess mortality in 2020/21.
You can clearly see the seasonal increase in all-cause deaths from the flu in the data, it's periodic and produces significantly fewer excess deaths than what can be observed in 2020/21:

Look at these excellent sources:
www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
and
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Weekly_death_statistics&stable

See the periodic peaks from the winter common cold? The 2017 and 2018 flu have been extremely severe (some of the worst flu seasons in the last decades) when compared to the normal seasonal flu. But even they pale in comparison to SARS-Cov-2.

This excess mortality exists despite all our best efforts to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. There is no glory in prevention. We don't know for sure how high the death toll would be by now, had we just apathetically accepted our fate, had SARS-Cov-2 been able to ravage through our societies without prevention measures.

But it is clear that it would have been much, much higher. 0.65% (that appears to be the IFR) of the population of the United States would be 2,155,000 people (when we naively assume everyone in the US to have been infected and assume absolutely no effects from the then inevitable collapse of the medical system, had we allowed for unmitigated spread).

You also state: "For one Japan in 2020 did minimal covid measures, they had lowest death ratio in 11 years. [linked article] How do you explain that?"

At least you provide a source this time and for that I applaud you. Yes, Japan appears to have had relatively few deaths in 2020. The article you linked states:

"The smaller total may be linked to a sharp fall in seasonal influenza infections as people took strict infection prevention measures, including wearing face masks and washing their hands, amid the novel coronavirus pandemic."

According to Wikipedia (COVID-19 pandemic in Japan) numerous explanations have been proposed:

"Japan's death rate per capita from coronavirus is one of the lowest in the developed world, despite its aging population. Factors suggested to explain this include the government response, a milder strain of the virus, cultural habits such as bowing etiquette and wearing face masks [!], hand washing with sanitizing equipment, a protective genetic trait, and a relative immunity conferred by the mandatory BCG tuberculosis vaccine.[17]" (ref 17: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7207161/)

It's also worth noting that the number of deaths might have thus far been underestimated: "A University of Washington excess fatality analysis published in May 2021 notes that the official figures may only reflect 10 percent of the actual number." (COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, Wikipedia).

Furthermore, calling Japan's covid measures "minimal" as you do, I'd argue, misrepresents the facts (the article you provided as a source actually states the opposite of what you are asserting). Here's a timeline: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Japan
In Japanese law the government does not have the authority to enforce citywide lockdowns. So you've got a point, they managed to make do without large scale lockdowns. However, Japan took several other measures and also imposed international travel restrictions (and quarantine for those visiting). Being an island state, this has proved pretty effective (just like but not to the same extent as in New Zealand and Australia).
Restricting travel in between individual states in the US or individual countries in the EU naturally has not been remotely as effective (or in case of the US hasn't even been attempted [to my knowledge]).

That's about it when it comes to facts.
I will only briefly address the rest of your post. You express the belief that most of your previous interlocutors somehow knew "the real state of things" (I'm not 100% sure what you mean by that) and were arguing the way they were because they had some personal interest in prolonging the pandemic. Your previous experience has apparently been with people who (to your mind) argued in bad faith and used dishonest discussion tactics. This if true is regrettable. I aim to do neither and assure you that I want this dreadful pandemic to end as soon as possible. I have no personal (financial etc.) interest in prolonging it, on the contrary.
I simply wanted to point out that I believe you should rethink some of your positions on the danger that the virus poses and on the (in my view nonexistent) danger that masks might pose in light of the evidence I have provided. I hope you found my arguments to be compelling or, in case of the remote possibility that I and nearly all virologists and epidemiologists in the world have it all wrong, I'd like to know and would welcome your rebuttal sprinkled with evidence.

Lastly you express doubt that covid restrictions will ever fully go away. You fear governments will abuse this pandemic for a power grab. Such fears are understandable (and some governments surely use the pandemic for their benefit, e.g. China which attempts to demonstrate the superiority of its totalitarian system over the 'weak, western democracies that can't get anything done' in times of crisis).

But I posit that your reaction should not be to find ways in which SARS-Cov-2 is allegedly overblown (it isn't, if anything we've probably been underestimating its effects so far: www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality), it should be to work towards ensuring that state of emergency privileges (given to the government) are tightly bound to the real danger that is still posed by the pandemic. If the danger is gone, curtailing freedoms is no longer justified and should not be tolerated, I agree. In many western democracies this is the case, their laws about mitigation of infectious diseases clearly state that emergency state measures may only be taken when there is due reason to do so and have to be repealed when there is no longer good reason.

This pandemic will probably become endemic over time, ideally nearly the entire population (80% or 90%) will hopefully decide to get vaccinated (as this entails much, much lower health risks for the vast majority of the population than actually getting infected and helps not only the individual but society as a whole), the rest will probably be infected at least once at some point (and hopefully survive without long term health damage like long covid).
But this should be done in such a way as to not overwhelm the health services and as to deny SARS-Cov-2 a breeding ground ideal for nasty mutations. I don't think we're fully there yet, but it probably won't take too much longer. That's why I believe we shouldn't prematurely throw all caution in the wind. Let's be careful and get out of this together.
@Thalassokrator #82

I have little bit more time, but still not intrested in dishonest discussion, where there is no way to prove yourself right, because your opponent will never agree that he was mistaken on something. I've actually yet to come across a single person who is not on the fence and pro-lockdown who would budge an inch no matter what proof is given. And I've had a thousand discussions over past now 1.5 years. The only people who are open to any sort of info are those who have no clear opinion yet.
Also as I've said there appears to be very sizeable amount of people who love this all regardless whether there is virus or not. And they go out of their way to support these measures online as well inventing every possible reason why they should be kept.

As to the deaths, even United Nations which were otherways very supportive of all the covid measures, admitted that it will kill millions by starvation, and probably more than the virus. Here is link to UN website itself:
COVID-related hunger could kill more people than the virus
unglobalcompact.org/take-action/20th-anniversary-campaign/covid-related%20hunger-could-kill-more-people-than-the-virus
www.un.org/press/en/2020/ga12294.doc.htm

As to the masks they've been proven harmful and of little use over and over, it's simply being ignored, for example this recent peer reviewed study on children showed that masks produce highly harmful CO2 intake - six times above safe limit:
www.jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2781743
Among other things you will find studies that proved that masks reduce oxygen intake:
http://scielo.isciii.es/pdf/neuro/v19n2/3.pdf
That clothe masks actually increase chances of getting viral infection:
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150422121724.htm
And countless studies to show they have very little effect on viruses.
www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-facemasks-idUSKBN27Y1YW
And World Health Organization initially not recommending them.
edition.cnn.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-who-masks-recommendation-trnd/index.html

As to Japan/East Asia and masks wearing - first of all we have no data what their average life expectancy would be if they didn't use masks, so people using them might still be hurting themselves, we have no way of knowing, also there is the factor that in countries like Japan, and nowadays even China people probably are rich enough to change them often, this is not the case for majority of the world, hence it's clear that people are reusing old masks, which could have gotten contaminated with all sorts of viruses and bacteria - also you should go look up how even doctors struggle to tell apart virus cause pneumonia from bacterial one - if they can't tell what's caused it - how do they know that it's from covid? Keeping a dirty clothe on your mouth full of bacteria is I imagine one of best ways possible to get bacterial pneumonia.

I'd actually welcome anyone who could prove me wrong in honest discussion without using demagoguery, falshoods, omissions, exagarrations, personal attacks etc., as I've yet to see any proof that what happened over past 1.5 years saved any lives. Lockdowns would only make sense if they could eradicate virus as well - it's easy enough logic, otherways they just keep on delaying infections while causing massive cost on economy and mental health. Though we don't even have a proof that they delay infections - for example lockdowns appear to cramp people into tighter spaces - more people at the same time, as the options to go out were drastically limited, and many big malls closed, this lead to people gathering more in the few locations and stores they could.

There are multiple problems regarding excess death calculation and how that related to covid. We do know that for various reasons there is usually no post mortem section done to ascertain cause of death for a covid victim, in fact in many to most places they were burried by people in full protective gear. Therefore it becomes clear that near everyone who was covid positive and then died certain time later was registered as covid victim. From the spread of virus we can conclude that at certain times large percentages of people were covid positive, hence most of them would be registered as covid victims if they died.
How do you calculate what percentage of the excess deaths were due to covid? Probably the only way to calculate this would be to check how many people were registered as covid victims, and then check what percentage of deaths it were, and then compare that with percentage of excess deaths, however even that wouldn't really clear things up, since we don't really know with any degree of accuracy how many people died from covid. There might be 'hidden covid' deaths (although their possibility is greatly overestimated - and I will explain why), or there could be false covid deaths - people who were covid positive within certain time, but didn't really die from the disease.
Since we have no real number of how many people died from the disease, and since there is very serious reason to believe that lockdowns, masks and other measures caused massive deaths, we therefore can't state with any degree of accuracy what really caused these excess deaths. However there is one statistic that can't lie - it is comparing the average age of death for covid victims versus the average life expectancy, if they are the same then there is no reason to believe that these deaths come from covid, since poeple were dying at that age on average anyway. And that is precisely what we see, hence any further discussion isn't really warranted until you find some way to explain that away - and explain why covid doesn't seem to be much dangerous to young people.
The only way this data could still be misleading, is if lockdowns, masks etc. caused the average life expectancy to drop - which is actually what should be expected. There is no way on earth all these measures didn't cause harm. Crime has also seen incredibly rise around the world since lockdowns started. I had multiple of my items stolen worth a total of 1000$ when the lockdowns started - which was by far the biggest i've ever lost to theft, and I am not a rich guy, so it hurt me badly.

As to why possibility of huge number of unknown covid deaths is somewhat remote - the reason being that pretty much all over the world every hospital admission is tested for covid, and it is well known that most people die in hospitals (roughly 60%), and given how covid isn't known as a quick death disease, there is no reason to think that those poeple wouldn't get to hospital before they died.
Masks have been proven to be highly ineffective. Politicians who keep forcing them on people should be fired on the spot for incompetence.
@the_providence #83

This will be long due to the many quotes.
Part 1:
"[...] still not intrested in dishonest discussion, where there is no way to prove yourself right, because your opponent will never agree that he was mistaken on something."
Great! We're on the same page there. I don't know why you reiterate your bad past experiences with other people. I'm not them. I strive for an honest discussion.
You're again implying that I (well, you keep it general, "[...] [a] very sizeable amount of people") appear to "love this all". I don't know why you keep bringing that up. You already said that and I already addressed it. You are talking to me, not an angry Twitter mob.

First-off, you make a GREAT point in your second paragraph. Credit where credit is due. The pandemic naturally has an economic impact. Thus far industrialised nations have acted in self-interest, attempting to protect their own population. Because of this this their economies have suffered temporarily, although many might argue less than they would have, if unmitigated spread had been allowed to happen. It has recently become apparent what happens in such instances, I'm talking of course about India. Their latest horrendous Covid wave met an ill-prepared medical system, oxygen shortages and led to countless of deaths. In such scary situations the population will self-isolate by itself, even if the government still pretends the situation is under control. A lockdown, its proponents argue, delay and dampen the spread ('flattening the curve'), in order to avoid losing control like India recently did. That's really the main argument for a lockdown, it is meant to prevent that the medical system is overwhelmed (like it was at different times in Bergamo, Italy; Belgium; New York, USA; India, Czechia, Poland, etc.). Lockdowns will no longer be necessary when a sufficient amount of people have acquired some form of immunity (herd immunity), either by having survived a recent infection or by being vaccinated. When herd immunity is reached, the pathogen's spread is severely hampered and it no longer poses the threat to overwhelm (frail) medical systems. Then the pandemic will become endemic.

So rich countries have so far acted out of self-preservation. That the ensuing initial economic downturn can have dramatic effects in less fortunate countries has largely been ignored. Now international efforts will have to be made in order to prevent famines in developing countries (for lack of a better term). I dearly hope they will largely succeed in avoiding the worst of economic effects. That the pandemic has such horrible large scale effects is one more reason to work towards ending it as soon as possible.

Now on to the masks. Let me again start with something positive: You have provided sources. I applaud you for that as it is sadly rather uncommon in internet discussions.

However from what I can see the sources you've provided don't actually vindicate most of the assertions you make. In some cases it seems like you have not actually read your own source, otherwise you would have noticed that it doesn't actually say what you think it says. Let's look at them one by one:

First you assert that "[Masks have] been proven harmful and of little use over and over, it's simply being ignored [...]". You cite a recent peer-reviewed study. However, above the abstract there is a disclaimer that you must have overlooked: "Article Alert: View retraction". Peer-review has apparently found glaring errors with the study. The clinical trial you reference has already been retracted due to "[...] numerous scientific issues [...] regarding the study methodology, including concerns about the applicability of the device used for assessment of carbon dioxide levels in this study setting, and whether the measurements obtained accurately represented carbon dioxide content in inhaled air, as well as issues related to the validity of the study conclusions."
Read the full Notice of Retraction here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2782288

Next you claim "Among other things you will find studies that proved that masks reduce oxygen intake: [...]"

As a side note: 'Proved' is a difficult word. In science there is no proof (or formal definition thereof). Testable hypotheses can only be falsified. When experiment repeatedly fails to falsify a hypothesis, the scientists become more confident in their hypothesis. But it is not thereby proven. Later experiments can always shed new light on a hypothesis.

When I (and I'm not a physician) read the 'Results' and 'Discussion' section of the 2008 study you cite for this claim, a more nuanced picture emerges. I quote:

"Surgical masks may impose some measurable airway resistance, but it seems doubtful if this significantly increases the process of breathing. [...]
The surgeon's post operational blood O2 saturation level is decreased more than 1% although the variability [i.e. statistical error, annotation by me] of the saturation sensors is less than 1%. It is thought that after a very short time the barrier function of the surgical face mask is gone. Thus it is hard to believe that these masks serve as a reducer of oxygen uptake, but they may be acting as a psychological restriction over spontaneous breathing of the active surgeon.
Considering our findings, this is the first clinical investigation reporting a decrease in blood O2 saturation and an increase in pulse rates of the surgeons after the operations due to surgical mask usage. This change in SpO2 may be either due to the facial mask or the operational stress, since similar changes were observed in the group performing surgery without a mask. However, it cannot be decided whether stress plays any role on the late changes, namely pulse rate increase and SpO2 level decrease; [...]"

And in the results section it says:
"When the values for oxygen saturation of hemoglobin were compared, there were statistically significant differences only between preoperational and post operational
values (Fig. 1). [...]
In the group of surgeons who did not wear masks during primary care operations with duration of less than 30 minutes, preoperational saturation values were 97.6±0.2 while post operational values decreased to 96.3±0.3 (p=0.0006)"

That means the study found no statistically significant difference between the group of surgeons who wore a mask and the group who didn't. The only significant difference found was between pre- and post-operational oxygen saturation (it goes down during surgery, this effect is a bit more pronounced for surgeons over 35).
That's presumably the reason why there is no Figure directly comparing Group Ia (wearing a mask [n=5]) and group Ib (not wearing a mask [n=9]). Their blood oxygenation was similar. Further note that the groups are very small (fewer than 10 people per group).

The lowest value for oxygen saturation (from Fig 3a) was the post operational value of 95.8% (down from 97.2% prior to the operation) for surgeons over 35. According to the study "normal blood O2 saturation" is usually defined as a fractional saturation of 90 to 97.5%, so even the lowest recorded value is still well within the bounds of normal blood oxygen saturation (i.e. poses no danger to the surgeon's health).

Maybe you should try reading more than just the title of a study. Clinical trials are very interesting and fascinating, I highly recommend getting your teeth into the nitty-gritty details. Otherwise you'll often misinterpret the findings.

Your next claim reads as follows: "That clothe masks actually increase chances of getting viral infection: [...]"

The 'ScienceDaily' article you cite for this assertion does not actually say the same as you do. You should carefully read the sources you cite. The 2015 study discussed in the article found that health care workers (not common people) wearing ONLY cloth masks INSTEAD of masks providing better protection (like surgical masks or respirators satisfying N95, FFP2, etc. standards or higher) were more likely (than those wearing gear with better protection) to contract respiratory diseases. Surprising? I think not.

The study did not compare cloth mask wearers with no mask wearers (from what I can see). It compared healthcare workers wearing cloth masks with healthcare workers wearing medical masks. It found that cloth masks are clearly not enough to protect healthcare workers who are in contact with potentially (highly) contagious patients for their entire shifts.

I quote: "The authors SPECULATE [emphasis added by me] that the cloth masks' moisture retention, their reuse and poor filtration may explain the increased risk of infection. [...]
Additional research is urgently needed to build on our study's findings."

What seems clear is that cloth masks should not be used for extended periods of time in medical settings. They are clearly not up for that job.

Regarding covid, many (rich) European countries now recommend the use of FFP2 (≈N95) masks for indoor settings (like public transport or groceries). Medical professionals wear at least FFP2, better yet FFP3 masks (which filter even better). Cloth masks for common people are a last resort and if used should be cleaned regularly (with proper use they are probably better than no mask at all, because they at least reduce droplet infection, however SARS-Cov-2 is now known to primarily be transmissible through aerosols, which cannot effectively be stopped by a cloth mask).

For poorer countries it is clear that not everyone can use N95 type masks (and continually replace them), which is why people in poorer countries are generally at higher risk of contracting covid, have a lower probability of having access to a vaccine, etc.
International cooperation should help alleviate these problems and we should work together in order to get out of this pandemic.
In rich countries, wearing N95 type masks indoors (during an infection swell) is an act of self-preservation and solidarity and helps reduce the spread. Outdoors masks are not necessarily needed (especially when there are few current infections). An exceptions being long (more than 20 minutes) face to face discussions in close proximity (even outdoors they pose a moderate risk of transmission through droplets if no masks are worn).

Your next claim: "And countless studies to show they [cloth masks] have very little effect on viruses."

You link a Reuter's article about a study "carried out in April and May [of 2020] when Danish authorities did not recommend wearing face masks" in Denmark. In this early stage of the pandemic people mostly wore cloth masks (sometimes home made ones) because better masks were scarce. The study discussed in the article finds that those apparently provided worse than expected protection of only 15%-20%:

“The study does not confirm the expected halving of the risk of infection for people wearing face masks,” it said. “The results could indicate a more moderate degree of protection of 15-20%, however, the study could not rule out that face masks do not provide any protection.”

The findings are consistent with previous research. Health experts have long said a [cloth; annotation by me] mask provides only limited protection for the person wearing it, but can dramatically reduce the risk to others if the wearer is infected, even when showing no symptoms. Preventing the spread to others is known as source control.

The study’s findings “should not be used to conclude that a recommendation for everyone to wear masks in the community would not be effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, because the trial did not test the role of masks in source control of SARS-CoV-2 infection,” the authors wrote.

So you are right, cloth masks do not provide excellent protection for the wearer (although they might still help through source control). But that doesn't mean that they (or other superior masks and respirators for that matter) shouldn't be used at all. That's not inferable from the limited scope of this study (as the authors themselves point out).

Lastly you state that the WHO initially did not recommend them (I assume you still mean cloth masks?).

CNN reports (in the article you linked) that the WHO did not recommend that people go out and buy masks in march 2020 (very early in the pandemic), yes. There's a lot more knowledge about the pandemic and SARS-Cov-2 now than there was in march 2020. Nowadays the WHO supports mask use, higher protection masks (like N95 respirators) especially for people over 60 (or with underlying health conditions), at least cloth masks for everyone below 60 (source: www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-masks).
That's how science works, you find out something new, so you change your theory. In this case, the WHO has changed its recommendations.

Back then they feared private demand could drain the supplies and leave essential healthcare workers without much needed protection. In the article Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO health emergencies program, is quoted as follows:

"There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage [...] Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

Another WHO official is quoted as: "[...] we prioritize the use of masks for those who need it most, [...] In the community, we do not recommend the use of wearing masks unless you yourself are sick and as a measure to prevent onward spread from you if you are ill, [...]"

Pretty understandable at this point in time. Though I still think it was bad public communication on part of the WHO. They should have been way more clear about the fact that masks (especially respirators like N95 and higher) are effective in slowing the spread and as protective gear (to various degrees, with N95/FFP2 upwards being highly effective), while also communicating that common people should not drain the supplies at a time where hospitals were struggling to satiate their demand for desperately needed protective gear.

So there you go, that's my take on your sources about masks. For all quotes, please see the links the_providence has provided in #83.
#83
Part 2:

You write
"As to Japan/East Asia and masks wearing - first of all we have no data what their average life expectancy would be if they didn't use masks, so people using them might still be hurting themselves, we have no way of knowing, also there is the factor that in countries like Japan, and nowadays even China people probably are rich enough to change them often, this is not the case for majority of the world, hence it's clear that people are reusing old masks, which could have gotten contaminated with all sorts of viruses and bacteria [...]"

Let's focus on Japan. It's been normal for years to wear face masks (esp. in winter) in Japanese culture (source: www.embopress.org/doi/full/10.15252/emmm.202012481). Japan also has the highest life expectancy in the world (84.6 years on average and it's still rising). By contrast, the US only has a life expectancy of 79.9 years on average (and it has stagnated in the last decade, while life expectancy is continually rising in most western countries). South Korea is similar to Japan both in life expectancy (83.0 years) and in frequent and culturally accepted mask use prior to 2020. Source for life expectancy: ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy

But you suggest that we can't know whether or not their mask use (prior to 2020) has affected them negatively. After all, you reason, they might have an even higher life expectancy were it not for those pesky masks. Ok.
But don't you attribute the excess death in Europe from early 2020 onwards (partially) to masks? Isn't that a clear way of identifying mask use in a society then? Why was the same excess mortality not observed in Japan or South Korea prior to 2020? That doesn't make sense to me.
Furthermore, the onset of excess deaths in 2020 is exponential and predated lockdown and mask mandates. Who come the exponential increase in excess deaths come prior to the lockdowns and the masks, if according to your hypothesis the masks and the lockdown significantly contribute to the excess deaths? Or might a highly contagious novel infections disease be a more parsimonious explanation for an exponential increase in excess deaths (that begins prior to the subsequent countermeasures)?

To me the latter explains this data (www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps) much better than the former.

Concerning your other presumption: "[...] in countries like Japan, and nowadays even China people probably are rich enough to change them often, this is not the case for majority of the world, hence it's clear that people are reusing old masks, which could have gotten contaminated with all sorts of viruses and bacteria [...]"

I'd like to ask whether or not Europe counts as a prosperous region of the world, if Japan and China count as such regions? The euromomo data I've linked above is from western europe primarily. In western Europe people do not have to wear the same mask for weeks on end. Most can afford to change them daily or every few days (depending on how much they need to use them). The governments of western Europe have in part also given out free FFP2 (≈N95) masks to people (financed through taxes, so free is a bit of a white lie, but people could simply collect them at their pharmacy at no cost).

If you argue that the effect of the masks to Japanese people are not as severe because they frequently change them, then why do you propose significant portions of the excess mortality in Europe to be due to masks that were not changed often enough? This does not make sense to me.

You write: "also you should go look up how even doctors struggle to tell apart virus cause pneumonia from bacterial one - if they can't tell what's caused it - how do they know that it's from covid?"

How do they know, you ask? They know through characteristic symptoms and through tests. There are many types of tests, the most accurate one being PCR-tests (polymerase chain reaction). For more information see: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#PCR-based_test

You go on:
"I'd actually welcome anyone who could prove me wrong in honest discussion without using demagoguery, falshoods, omissions, exagarrations, personal attacks etc."
That's a commendable attitude. I strive for the same and hope I have not been guilty of using any of the things you've listed. If I should unconsciously have done so, please point me towards it.

I've already explained above why lockdowns can make sense (as a last resort measure to prevent the medical system's collapse) even if they don't completely eradicate the virus. Eradicating it would have been nice, but it's impossible at this point. It would only have been possible to eradicate it, if it had been contained in December 2019. Now that it has spread around the globe there's no going back. It will however become endemic and probably way less severe once nearly everybody has acquired some sort of immunity (through recent infection or preferably vaccine).

You correctly identify: "[...] they just keep on delaying infections while causing massive cost on economy and mental health." Indeed, and that's why we hopefully won't need many more lockdowns. The alternative to delaying infections however is having them all at the same time right now. This can put a huge strain on our medical systems even to the point where we completely overwhelm them in extreme cases (like I've argued above, Bergamo, NY, India 2021, etc.). I won't dare compare the loneliness and other mental health problems that lockdowns can cause in some with the severe PTSD of healthcare workers who have to decide who gets a chance to live and who doesn't (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage). It would not be ethical to say one is better or worse than the other. But I certainly feel triage should be avoided whenever possible.

Your point that lockdowns are counterproductive because they supposedly cram people into tighter spaces does not make sense to me. It crams people into spaces with their direct relatives. They would have had intense contact with those persons whether there is a lockdown or not. A lockdown reduced overall mobility and contacts as can be clearly seen from mobile phone provider data and (in some countries) corona tracking apps. Fewer contacts with other humans mean fewer chances of transmission and that means the spread of the virus is mitigated. That this works is exemplified by the wavelike character of the covid spread in countries which imposed lockdowns.

You have exponential spread (every few days the number of new infections doubles, the timeframe in which this happens is called the 'doubling time', this doubling time t_d is roughly constant and pretty short), then a lockdown is imposed, the spread slows down and t_d gets bigger and bigger. A successful lockdown (like the one Italy did after Bergamo in 2020) then pushes the number of infections all the way down to nearly zero again, the spread has then been mitigated. With absolutely no countermeasures the exponential phase would last for much, much longer. And just like the king in the famous parable at some point cannot fill the next square on the chessboard with double the amount of rice than the last square, so too can the medical system at some point no longer handle the exponentially growing number of patients. With absolutely no countermeasures infections would have continued and continued throughout 2020 and 2021 and the spread would only have been slowed when enough people (at least 80% of the population) would have already been infected. At that point millions would have already died and tens of millions would have suffered long lasting damage to their lungs and organs (due to untreated disease).

I have to stop somewhere.
The rest of your post contains speculations about statistics that you do not provide. In an earlier post you provided this link: www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/averageageofthosewhohaddiedwithcovid19

And stated that the mean age of deaths "due to Covid-19" was 80.4 and went on to say that this means Covid beats regular life expectancy by 0.6 years. I don't know where you got the life expectancy data (you don't provide a source), but according to ourworldindata (linked above) it's actually 81.3 years (2019). My calculator tells me that 81.3-80.4=0.9

So on average British covid patient's lives have been cut short by about one year. I would call that a significant decrease in lifetime (since life expectancy in the UK has only changed by ≈0.1 years per year in recent years). And it does not yet take into account the reduced "healthy lifetime" (for which the decrease due to covid might be even more severe). One year difference between average age of Covid deaths and life expectancy cannot be used to infer that only people die from covid who would have died anyways. Suggesting that I find a bit cynical.

You go on about crime rates during Covid and that your house has been broken into. My sincere condolences, I hope you have not suffered too much financially. However I don't see what this has to do with Covid, if anything I would have thought that lockdowns and many people working at home would make it harder for thieves to break into homes. Do you have a crime statistic that shows what you say?

Lastly you say that unknown Covid deaths cannot be underestimated because 60% of people die in hospitals (apparently). Can you provide a source? 60% of what exactly?

Here are some ways how Covid deaths can be overlooked:

Old people often live alone and sometimes have few people caring for them. They might contract the virus, die alone in their home and never get tested.
Furthermore, Covid can cause indirect deaths. People might choose not to seek out medical attention in fears of contracting covid. They may thus delay essential medical treatments and die of preventable heart attacks, etc. Aha, one might say, this shows that the fear mongering causes excess deaths! Well, yes and no. Yes because those people have indeed died (in part) due to their fear to go to the hospital. And no, because their fears were (in part) justified as they would have been more likely to get infected and highly vulnerable to Covid due to their preexisting condition that might not have killed them had they gone to a hospital in 2019, but might provide covid the edge it needs to kill them anyways. So those excess deaths are largely caused by the pandemic itself, fear mongering or not.
#83
Part 2:

You write
"As to Japan/East Asia and masks wearing - first of all we have no data what their average life expectancy would be if they didn't use masks, so people using them might still be hurting themselves, we have no way of knowing, also there is the factor that in countries like Japan, and nowadays even China people probably are rich enough to change them often, this is not the case for majority of the world, hence it's clear that people are reusing old masks, which could have gotten contaminated with all sorts of viruses and bacteria [...]"

Let's focus on Japan. It's been normal for years to wear face masks (esp. in winter) in Japanese culture (source: www.embopress.org/doi/full/10.15252/emmm.202012481). Japan also has the highest life expectancy in the world (84.6 years on average and it's still rising). By contrast, the US only has a life expectancy of 79.9 years on average (and it has stagnated in the last decade, while life expectancy is continually rising in most western countries). South Korea is similar to Japan both in life expectancy (83.0 years) and in frequent and culturally accepted mask use prior to 2020. Source for life expectancy: ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy

But you suggest that we can't know whether or not their mask use (prior to 2020) has affected them negatively. After all, you reason, they might have an even higher life expectancy were it not for those pesky masks. Ok.
But don't you attribute the excess death in Europe from early 2020 onwards (partially) to masks? Isn't that a clear way of identifying mask use in a society then? Why was the same excess mortality not observed in Japan or South Korea prior to 2020? That doesn't make sense to me.
Furthermore, the onset of excess deaths in 2020 is exponential and predated lockdown and mask mandates. Who come the exponential increase in excess deaths come prior to the lockdowns and the masks, if according to your hypothesis the masks and the lockdown significantly contribute to the excess deaths? Or might a highly contagious novel infections disease be a more parsimonious explanation for an exponential increase in excess deaths (that begins prior to the subsequent countermeasures)?

To me the latter explains this data (www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps) much better than the former.

Concerning your other presumption: "[...] in countries like Japan, and nowadays even China people probably are rich enough to change them often, this is not the case for majority of the world, hence it's clear that people are reusing old masks, which could have gotten contaminated with all sorts of viruses and bacteria [...]"

I'd like to ask whether or not Europe counts as a prosperous region of the world, if Japan and China count as such regions? The euromomo data I've linked above is from western europe primarily. In western Europe people do not have to wear the same mask for weeks on end. Most can afford to change them daily or every few days (depending on how much they need to use them). The governments of western Europe have in part also given out free FFP2 (≈N95) masks to people (financed through taxes, so free is a bit of a white lie, but people could simply collect them at their pharmacy at no cost).

If you argue that the effect of the masks to Japanese people are not as severe because they frequently change them, then why do you propose significant portions of the excess mortality in Europe to be due to masks that were not changed often enough? This does not make sense to me.

You write: "also you should go look up how even doctors struggle to tell apart virus cause pneumonia from bacterial one - if they can't tell what's caused it - how do they know that it's from covid?"

How do they know, you ask? They know through characteristic symptoms and through tests. There are many types of tests, the most accurate one being PCR-tests (polymerase chain reaction). For more information see: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#PCR-based_test

You go on:
"I'd actually welcome anyone who could prove me wrong in honest discussion without using demagoguery, falshoods, omissions, exagarrations, personal attacks etc."
That's a commendable attitude. I strive for the same and hope I have not been guilty of using any of the things you've listed. If I should unconsciously have done so, please point me towards it.

I've already explained above why lockdowns can make sense (as a last resort measure to prevent the medical system's collapse) even if they don't completely eradicate the virus. Eradicating it would have been nice, but it's impossible at this point. It would only have been possible to eradicate it, if it had been contained in December 2019. Now that it has spread around the globe there's no going back. It will however become endemic and probably way less severe once nearly everybody has acquired some sort of immunity (through recent infection or preferably vaccine).

You correctly identify: "[...] they just keep on delaying infections while causing massive cost on economy and mental health." Indeed, and that's why we hopefully won't need many more lockdowns. The alternative to delaying infections however is having them all at the same time right now. This can put a huge strain on our medical systems even to the point where we completely overwhelm them in extreme cases (like I've argued above, Bergamo, NY, India 2021, etc.). I won't dare compare the loneliness and other mental health problems that lockdowns can cause in some with the severe PTSD of healthcare workers who have to decide who gets a chance to live and who doesn't (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage). It would not be ethical to say one is better or worse than the other. But I certainly feel triage should be avoided whenever possible.

Your point that lockdowns are counterproductive because they supposedly cram people into tighter spaces does not make sense to me. It crams people into spaces with their direct relatives. They would have had intense contact with those persons whether there is a lockdown or not. A lockdown reduced overall mobility and contacts as can be clearly seen from mobile phone provider data and (in some countries) corona tracking apps. Fewer contacts with other humans mean fewer chances of transmission and that means the spread of the virus is mitigated. That this works is exemplified by the wavelike character of the covid spread in countries which imposed lockdowns.

You have exponential spread (every few days the number of new infections doubles, the timeframe in which this happens is called the 'doubling time', this doubling time t_d is roughly constant and pretty short), then a lockdown is imposed, the spread slows down and t_d gets bigger and bigger. A successful lockdown (like the one Italy did after Bergamo in 2020) then pushes the number of infections all the way down to nearly zero again, the spread has then been mitigated. With absolutely no countermeasures the exponential phase would last for much, much longer. And just like the king in the famous parable at some point cannot fill the next square on the chessboard with double the amount of rice than the last square, so too can the medical system at some point no longer handle the exponentially growing number of patients. With absolutely no countermeasures infections would have continued and continued throughout 2020 and 2021 and the spread would only have been slowed when enough people (at least 80% of the population) would have already been infected. At that point millions would have already died and tens of millions would have suffered long lasting damage to their lungs and organs (due to untreated disease).

I have to stop somewhere.
The rest of your post contains speculations about statistics that you do not provide. In an earlier post you provided this link: www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/averageageofthosewhohaddiedwithcovid19

And stated that the mean age of deaths "due to Covid-19" was 80.4 and went on to say that this means Covid beats regular life expectancy by 0.6 years. I don't know where you got the life expectancy data (you don't provide a source), but according to ourworldindata (linked above) it's actually 81.3 years (2019). My calculator tells me that 81.3-80.4=0.9

So on average British covid patient's lives have been cut short by about one year. I would call that a significant decrease in lifetime (since life expectancy in the UK has only changed by ≈0.1 years per year in recent years). And it does not yet take into account the reduced "healthy lifetime" (for which the decrease due to covid might be even more severe). One year difference between average age of Covid deaths and life expectancy cannot be used to infer that only people die from covid who would have died anyways. Suggesting that I find a bit cynical.

You go on about crime rates during Covid and that your house has been broken into. My sincere condolences, I hope you have not suffered too much financially. However I don't see what this has to do with Covid, if anything I would have thought that lockdowns and many people working at home would make it harder for thieves to break into homes. Do you have a crime statistic that shows what you say?

Lastly you say that unknown Covid deaths cannot be underestimated because 60% of people die in hospitals (apparently). Can you provide a source? 60% of what exactly?

Here are some ways how Covid deaths can be overlooked:

Old people often live alone and sometimes have few people caring for them. They might contract the virus, die alone in their home and never get tested.
Furthermore, Covid can cause indirect deaths. People might choose not to seek out medical attention in fears of contracting covid. They may thus delay essential medical treatments and die of preventable heart attacks, etc. Aha, one might say, this shows that the fear mongering causes excess deaths! Well, yes and no. Yes because those people have indeed died (in part) due to their fear to go to the hospital. And no, because their fears were (in part) justified as they would have been more likely to get infected and highly vulnerable to Covid due to their preexisting condition that might not have killed them had they gone to a hospital in 2019, but might provide covid the edge it needs to kill them anyways. So those excess deaths are largely caused by the pandemic itself, fear mongering or not.

+1
-1
laugh
thinking
heart
horsey
That is the reason I wrote that I have no interest in dishonest discussion. I have to waste time refuting someone who's biased and making false assertions.

I quote you "The 'ScienceDaily' article you cite for this assertion does not actually say the same as you do."
yes it does, it is right there in the heading:

"The widespread use of cloth masks by healthcare workers may actually put them at increased risk of respiratory illness and viral infections and their global use should be discouraged, according to a UNSW study."

However they admit that they did not prove that they increase infections, rather they only found them to be of almost no use and they speculated that due to various factors they might actually increase chances of infection compared to not using mask.

As to the study about CO2 intake. I had stored the link but didn't check it before posting - it must have been retracted recently, and it wasn't retracted by the authors of the study, rather it was apparently nit picked and pressure was applied to retract it. By now I think most everyone knows that a lot of this has been politicized, so there is a political lobby for or against certain stuff related to covid (actually almost everything related to it).
There is little political pushback against any of the pro-lockdown, pro-mask information, but anything that goes against covid measures is massively censored, including my country made new laws that effectively serve as attempt to silence anyone disagreeing with covid measures, they are a one way street, and doesn't protect against any pro-lockdown, pro-mask misinformation. Protests were banned and billions in money were borrowed, and my country has quite high levels of corruption, so no doubt much of that money went sideways.

I never said that special medical expensive masks such as N95 don't work. Also I am not against anyone wearing masks - they can do it if they like, I even wore a mask myself at the start of this, though it was somewhat higher grade than cloth mask, although I was almost sure the virus isn't really dangerous since early February 2020., still I was somewhat on the fence back then, and thought maybe masks help 1%., and they might, it doesn't mean they are useful in overall, or that that tiny bit of reduced risk outweights the negative health effects. There are other common adverse health effects such as acne from mask wearing, this is one that doesn't really need a study to prove it.
You took a great deal of time to read the links I sent and try to nit pick any issues that would help to support your view, while I applaud you for rigorous checking and trying to follow facts, it still seems somewhat biased approach.

What I do not support is mask mandates, my country still has it, and most people hate it. When masks were mandated here right after that the infection rate shot up massively, coincidence? Such coincidences appear to have happened in most countries and places around the world - still we can assume that it's coincidence as I am not sure if there is a peer reviewed study on that, but I think it is needed.

I find it absurd that you are trying to prove that masks do not reduce oxygen intake, or do not increase CO2 levels. I think it's something anyone can feel. I myself had a low vitamin b12 levels which made me very suspectible to oxygen decrease - such as I could get dizzy in a tightly packed train with closed windows, and I easily got dizzy while using mask. There is no amount of misinformation that will change my mind on this subject, I think it should be common sense, and common knowledge that they do decrease oxygen intake as it is very noticeably harder to breath through them.
Why you would go out of your way to spend inordinate amounts of time to support something which most goverments already mandate for a year for a protection against virus which has same average age of death as average life expectancy, is beyond me, but I can only conclude that you love masks, love lockdowns, and love what's going on for whatever reasons that you have.
I for one wasn't from the start sure if this virus is dangerous or not, I was even bit supportive about masks. It was never about politics for me. But a year and a half later all I see is complete dystopia, massive power grabs from goverements, complete dictatorship in my country, where all polls show that small minority of people in my country support any of this, and yet goverments go ahead with this all, and now we are about to get mandatory vaccination etc. - something I will refuse with all I've got, and I would have refused it regardless of situation or politics or anything, anyone who wants to inject something into me against my free will is my worst enemy. By the way - I was never anti vaccine in my life, I think proper vaccines are good and can save lives, but I don't think they should be mandatory either.
I can remind you that currently covid measures are supported by WHO, the UN, the European Union, the United States, 90-99% of bussineses, by almost all goverments. There is massive censorship against opposing views on facebook, on google, on twitter, almost everywhere - is censorship something that you associate with freedom, democracy, free exchange of information? Countless countries in the world have used curfews, vaccine mandates, masks mandates, banned people from meeting their friends and loved ones, destroyed bussineses, destroyed jobs, enacted censorship, made new oppressive laws etc.
Just recently in France they plan to fine people tens of thousands of euros, and put them for up to a year in jail for visiting certain places without being vaccinated (half year in jail for client, year for owner). Does that sound normal to you and something we should support?
How do you explain UK and many other countries having average covid death at same age as average deaths for any reason in the country? Does it not bother you that even according to UN which is an organization I presume you would support and see as an authority, when even they said that millions will die from starvation due to lockdowns, more than from virus itself, and it won't be just people who were at the end of their life, it will be people for whom life just started, and never really happened.

What's true is that it's possible that oxygen reduction for masks wearers might be small. Still I could feel it myself.
That doesn't change the fact that they are mandated attribute in many to most countries in the world now. And that they have failed to stop this virus anywhere, lockdowns have failed as well. Maybe time to abolish it all and live with this like we lived with flu, common cold etc.

In the end - here's another study which showed that mask usage leads to bacterial contamination:
www.researchgate.net/publication/326039569_Surgical_masks_as_source_of_bacterial_contamination_during_operative_procedures
"We investigated the difference in bacterial counts between the SMs worn by surgeons and those placed unused in the operating room (OR) ... Results The bacterial count on the surface of SMs increased with extended operating times; significant difference was found between the 4- to 6-hour and 0-hour groups (p < 0.05). When we analysed the bacterial counts from the same surgeon, a significant increase was noted in the 2-hours group. Moreover, the bacterial counts were significantly higher among the surgeons than the OR. Additionally, the bacterial count of the external surface of the second mask was significantly higher than that of the first one. Conclusions The source of bacterial contamination in SMs was the body surface of the surgeons rather than the OR environment. Moreover, we recommend that surgeons should change the mask after each operation, especially those beyond 2 hours. "
@Thalassokrator #85
@LittleChessPlayer202 #87

here's a study about lockdowns - it found that they do not work
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7883103/
quote: "While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less‐restrictive interventions."

Here's info about average age of covid victim in United States (same as life expectancy)
www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm
quote: "Median decedent age was 78 years (interquartile range (IQR) = 67–87 years)."
www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-life-expectancy-compare-countries/
quote: " U.S. life expectancy was 78.6 years, compared to an average of 82.3 years for comparable countries. "

here is Czech republic as another example:
koronavirus.mzcr.cz/en/average-age-of-deceased-patients-who-are-covid-19-positive-is-79-80/
quote: "Average Age of Deceased Patients Who Are COVID-19 Positive Is 79-80"
www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/czech-republic-life-expectancy
quote: " and total life expectancy is 79.2 which gives Czech Republic a World Life Expectancy ranking of 31"

I could go on. It's same in my country as well.

Until you explain how virus with mean victim age same as life expectancy deserves lockdowns and medical mandates that even according to UN would kill millions, then we can discuss
I have no time to delve into nit picking to support certain posture. True you found some holes in some of the studies I cited, I don't deny that. It doesn't really change the other facts.
This is very hard data. We also know that deaths of young people from this virus are extremely rare. There are far far more deadly viruses to young people than covid (in fact it doesn't seem to be dangerous at all if you are under 40, in fact even if you are under 60).
Hey, nobody is going to read that as this is a Chess site!! Hope everyone is doing OK! Love from Canada.

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